Bayesian GPT

• What is more likely? Steve is librarian or a farmer? Steve is very shy and withdrawn, living in Texas, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.
• A group of researchers from the independent non-profit research organization DisasterWatch warns that the volcano located right next to a small city could erupt within the next five years. If this happens and if the government doesn’t prepare sufficiently for it, up to 5,000 people would die as a result of the volcano lava reaching the city too quickly for everyone to flee in time. The majority of the scientific community, however, dismisses the claim that a volcano outbreak is likely. They argue that the geological evidence from a wide range of scientific reports demonstrate that an eruption of this particular volcano can almost certainly be ruled out within the next five hundred years.  All experts agree that building the necessary safety walls around the city would certainly secure the city and its inhabitants in case of an eruption. But it would cost the government a lot of money. And the government estimates that with the amount it would cost to build the safety walls it could instead save at least 600 lives by investing it in the medical sector. Should the government invest in building the safety walls?
• Should I study law or medicine?
• Should I buy a bike or a car to go to work? I live in London, Distance: 5.5km

Welcome back! Ready for advanced Bayesian analysis?